Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Fall Over a Third Under Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The mean figure of per-day killings monthly in the country has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to recent government statistics. But, public safety experts have cautioned that homicide numbers may not indicate improved national stability.

Significant Reduction in Daily Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This data was delivered by the head of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we have seen during these past months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that in November the smallest number of murders were documented for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Fierce drug cartel infighting, alongside the government’s highly militarised efforts to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate more than four times higher than the US. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an seemingly sharper decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the President said: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Greater cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety researchers cautioned that relying on murder numbers to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is notably true considering the increase in different crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be positive news if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe last year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer valid for assessing the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using monthly averages of everyday killings was similarly an issue because it might hide periods when there were particularly high levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily average makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to official data. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains plagued by high violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to express their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely successful, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst said.