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Initially, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a firm stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing statements of "serious ramifications" in August should Putin continued hindering truce negotiations, the former president ultimately imposed major penalties on Russia's biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously hindered the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in the region.

However, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, which was developed by US and Russian officials excluding Ukraine's or European participation, he has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's plan would essentially benefit Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while putting the country's democratic system in peril. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", significant aspects of the plan effectively weaken that same independence. Seen as a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his real-estate background, Trump persists to consider the situation in Ukraine as a basic territorial dispute, like ceding Russia a portion of Ukrainian land will appease the ruler. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not merely about occupying a destroyed region of economically weakened territory in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to destroy it so it no longer serves as an enticing model for the Russian people of the democratic government that his increasing authoritarian rule denies them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although freezing in status the currently split oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would force the nation to give up the whole Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in more than a decade of warfare, this surrender would make Ukrainian defensive positions severely undermined.

This region is the place of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a key impediment to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a open way to Kyiv should he subsequently opt to resume the war.

Armed Forces Reductions

Furthermore, in a move that would make additional fighting easier for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to diminish the size of its troops from their present 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a limit of this lower number. Notably, Trump's plan places no similar limits on the invading army.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to depict Ukraine's legitimate administration as extremists, the proposal states: "Every extremist belief system and activities must be opposed and forbidden." Seemingly to highlight this element, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump imposes no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his authoritarian rule by holding elections in Russia.

Defense Assurances

Certainly, the proposal makes Russia promise not to "attack bordering nations" and to "enshrine in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet given that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent treaties in the previous instances – including the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a truce and a restoration of captured areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community have confidence in this commitment this time?

This explains Ukraine has been so determined on external defense commitments. While the proposal promises a "strong coordinated armed reaction" in case Russia resume its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the specifics vary from vague to troubling. The initiative would not only deny the nation Nato membership but also prohibit member states from deploying military personnel on the nation's land, effectively blocking the reassurance force, likely headed by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Russia from restoring his reduced troops, re-equipping, and attacking again.

World Concern

An additional side agreement according to sources would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any subsequent "serious, intentional, and continuous military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This indicates a military response. Yet different from a capable national defense – Ukraine's most reliable protection against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of alliance members, like Trump, to act militarily to Russia's aggression, something they have {not