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The direst possible consequences of the climate emergency for the UK have been outlined by scientists, encompassing a searing 4C increase in average temperatures to a 6.5-foot increase in ocean levels. An alternative projection envisions a drop of 6C in temperatures following the shutdown of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt agriculture and energy demand.

Plausible Extremes, Not Forecasts

These impacts, a number of which are associated with climate tipping points, are seen as low probability but plausible. The researchers said that these models filled a gap in forecasting that had rendered the UK ill-prepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The severe weather events we have outlined aren’t predictions, but they are credible," said Nigel Arnell who oversaw the analysis. "Britain has been planning without the tools to assess worst-case scenarios. We've now given planners what they need to plan for climate outcomes they pray never occur, but dare not dismiss."

A Range of Severe Conditions Possibilities

A second set of severe models details the potential extent of severe conditions between now and the close of the 2100s. These suggest that temperatures could skyrocket in particular seasons by up to 6C higher than average, while rainfall could be three times standard measurements.

The likelihood of the catastrophic events happening remains uncertain due to uncertainty about what action will be taken to tackle global warming and how the planet's climate will respond. This analysis was described as similar to defence planning or stress tests for the banking sector.

Key Outcome Elements

• 4C Temperature Rise: Worldwide averages soaring past 4C by 2100 could transpire if emissions cuts fails or if powerful amplifying effects like the tropical forests perishing release its enormous store of carbon. This would result in intense and enduring heatwaves and water shortages affecting the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A major ocean current, the North Atlantic current, is slowing down and losing stability due to climate change. A complete failure beginning in 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Farming would be severely challenged and water resources would be completely altered," explained the lead researcher.
• Rapid Sea Level Rise: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if ice sheets in the polar regions disintegrate quickly, flooding seaside communities. In contrast to the other scenarios, this possibility is already recognized by infrastructure experts.
• Aerosol Effect: Temperatures could also be pushed higher by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is drastically reduced. This paradoxical outcome occurs because pollution particles from burning coal block sunlight from warming the ground.

Preparing for the Worst

The worst-case scenarios could be used to inform the construction of critical national infrastructure, such as housing developments, power generation facilities and water management networks. Knowledge about these climate risks could also speed the drive to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The analysis formulated the worst-case scenarios using a blend of observed and historical experience, digital projections and scientific theory. These outcomes do not take into account potential global problems like the agricultural collapse and resource wars.

The project was initiated as part of a official climate resilience programme. Independent analyses have warned that not enough attention was being given to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

The government's climate advisors has recommended that the UK needs to "become resilient to moderate heating" and examine the dangers for severe warming. Previous adaptation plans have been criticised as being "very weak" by certain experts.

A government spokesperson said: "The climate emergency is at the heart of this government’s agenda, both adapting for the future and becoming a clean energy superpower. It is crucial that the UK is resilient for the impacts."