Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.
